Tension was already high between leaders in the south and networks in the north and east – then came the Kabul bombing
The attack against Kabul’s airport reminded the world that the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) remains active in Afghanistan and has not signed any peace deals. The US retaliated with two controversial drone strikes. After these episodes, ISKP may appear to be the most serious challenge to the Taliban right now, but the Taliban’s internal rivalries make it, in many ways, its own worst enemy.
The Taliban may appear powerful, with about 85,000 mobilised fighters, but they are also stretched thin all over Afghanistan, with a large part of their strength committed to securing the cities. This is 10 times the number of fighters who are loyal to ISKP, and maybe 20 times as big as the handful of loosely organised “resistance” militias based in the north-eastern province of Panjshir, who claim to be the main opposition to Taliban rule. But numbers do not tell the whole story. The Taliban have weaknesses that their enemies are seeking to exploit – and the group is showing a distinct lack of effective leadership, with rival leaders split into northern, eastern and southern factions pulling it in different directions.
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