Voters in nearly half of England’s local councils, including the London boroughs and the other biggest cities, will go to the polls on Thursday. Few expect the Conservatives to do well. This certainly includes the Tories themselves, who are busy managing expectations down to floor level, so that almost any victories can be presented as an unexpectedly positive evening.
Perhaps surprisingly, Labour is also trying to dampen expectations. Many of these councils were last elected in 2014, a decent year for Labour; and both main parties are unsure how the Ukip vote is likely to be redistributed. Four years ago, Ukip’s estimated share of the national vote was 17%. This year it will be well under half that.
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